Abstract
Abstract India has seen a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in early part of 2021, despite having controlled the epidemic during 2020. Building on a two-strain, semi-mechanistic model that synthesizes mortality and genomic data, we find evidence that altered epidemiological properties of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant play an important role in this resurgence in India. Under all scenarios of immune evasion, we find an increased transmissibility advantage for B.1617.2 against all previously circulating strains. Using an extended SIR model accounting for reinfections and wanning immunity, we produce evidence in support of how early public interventions in March 2021 would have helped to control transmission in the country. We argue that enhanced genomic surveillance along with constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission is critical for pandemic responsiveness. One Sentence Summary Altered epidemiological characteristics of B.1.617.2 and delayed public health interventions contributed to the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India from February to May 2021.
Samir Bhatt
Professor, FMedSci, MAE; Scientific Director of GPAP
Statistics, machine learning and Bayesian inference for public health and infectious diseases.