Effectiveness assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, during the COVID-19 pandemic has been assessed in many studies. Such assessments can inform public health policies and contribute to evidence-based choices of NPIs during subsequent waves or future epidemics. However, methodological issues and no standardised assessment practices have restricted the practical value of the existing evidence. Here, we present and discuss lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and make recommendations for standardising and improving assessment, data collection, and modelling. These recommendations could contribute to reliable and policy-relevant assessments of the effectiveness of NPIs during future epidemics.

Samir Bhatt

Professor, FMedSci, MAE; Scientific Director of GPAP

Statistics, machine learning and Bayesian inference for public health and infectious diseases.