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Multilevel Control Functional
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A comparison of short-term probabilistic forecasts for the incidence of COVID-19 using mechanistic and statistical time series models
Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While …
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Cox-Hawkes: doubly stochastic spatiotemporal Poisson processes
Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural …
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Data needs for integrated economic-epidemiological models of pandemic mitigation policies
The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation policies implemented in response to it have resulted in economic losses worldwide. Attempts to …
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Convolutional Neural Processes for Inpainting Satellite Images
The widespread availability of satellite images has allowed researchers to model complex systems such as disease dynamics. However, …
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Epidemia: An R Package for Semi-Mechanistic Bayesian Modelling of Infectious Diseases using Point Processes
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented …
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PriorVAE: Encoding spatial priors with VAEs for small-area estimation
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Aggregated Gaussian Processes with Multiresolution Earth Observation Covariates
For many survey-based spatial modelling problems, responses are observed as spatially aggregated over survey regions due to limited …
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Referenced Thermodynamic Integration for Bayesian Model Selection: Application to COVID-19 Model Selection
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